1.Analysis of domestic melamine price trend

Figure 1

In August, China’s melamine market has rallied after a narrow retreat. Earlier this month the continuation of the rally at the end of July, as the new plant stopped production or maintenance, enterprise construction load rate is declining, supply pressure significantly reduced, and continued in a low price shocks, the profit space is limited, part of the price intention is stronger, prices started to raise, tentatively into the middle of pace is accelerated, and downstream still consumption off-season, needs to maintain the downturn, And there are more early inventory available for use, so as the price continues to rise, the resistance increases, the enthusiasm to take goods will decline. In addition, as the price continues to rise, the profitability of enterprises has improved, and the production enthusiasm has improved. After the second half of the year, some of the discontinued equipment has been restored, and the start-up load rate of enterprises has slowly picked up. Under the condition of increasing supply without increasing demand, some companies tend to be pessimistic, the market trading atmosphere cools down, and manufacturers’ positive shipping willingness increases, and the transaction price starts to loosen at the end of the month.

2.Market analysis and forecast for next month

Figure 2

From the cost aspect, the late raw material urea market overall rise and fall space is more limited, or will continue to be in the low shock, the cost of melamine support intensity is general

From the supply level, although some enterprises in September maintenance plan, and there are still production equipment to resume production, the average start-up load rate of enterprises compared with August overall improved, increased output, in addition, dealers and downstream users have different degrees of inventory available for use, the market as a whole supply of goods is relatively abundant.

From the demand level, September is the traditional peak season of consumption, and the overall operation of downstream factories is expected to increase. However, affected by the current situation at home and abroad, the operation is increased or less than that of the same period in previous years, so it may have a restraining effect on the market to a certain extent.

Melamine coming time pattern of supply and demand or to a state of relatively loose, zhuo gen information suggesting market will continue at the end of August and early September price quotations, and when the price dropped to a cost line again, declines will slow down gradually, domestic and foreign dealers and downstream users or will consider purchasing a new round of replenishment, the rebound is expected to boost the market.

In addition, for the forecast of the next three months, the market will continue to be in the traditional peak season of consumption, without special circumstances, the overall construction situation of the downstream will be improved, but compared with the supply side with sufficient supply, the positive boost generated by the increase in demand to the market may be relatively limited, so the market may not have much room to rise or fall.