1.Market review of this month

1.1 Analysis of domestic melamine price trend

Figure 1

The overall melamine market in China rose slowly in November. The downstream market remains tepid, and the downstream factories in some regions are limited to start operation due to external factors, so the domestic downstream demand continues to be in a state of “low peak season”. In the middle of the year, there was little change in the supply and demand. After the recovery of some production stoppages, the operating load rate of the enterprise remained at about 60%. The supply was basically stable, and the downstream demand did not change. However, due to the rapid rise of the raw material urea market, the price rose to a high level, which formed a strong cost support for melamine, so the manufacturer had a strong intention to increase the price. Subsequently, the price gradually increased tentatively.

2.Market analysis and forecast of next month

Figure 2

In terms of cost, the raw material urea market will remain at a high level, so it will continue to provide cost support for melamine.

From the supply perspective, there will be enterprises planning to stop, and parking devices will resume production. The overall fluctuation of the enterprise’s operating load rate is not large, and it is expected to be adjusted in a narrow range of about 60%. The supply of goods is basically stable, while there are still some problems of poor logistics and transportation, which will ease the pressure on the market to deliver goods.

From the perspective of demand, it is difficult for the domestic downstream market to change significantly in the short term, and the plan that some downstream factories will stop work or take holidays after the last ten days of next month is still relatively weak as a whole; Most of the exports have orders waiting to be issued in the early stage, and the overall volume of new orders has been slightly tightened.