1. Market review of the month
1.1 Analysis of domestic melamine price trends

Figure 1

In June, China’s melamine market rose first and then fell, then the mainstream stabilized. With the gradual stabilization of the market at the end of last month, and supported by the cost of urea price increases, the downstream bargain price followed up appropriately, and the company’s order shipments improved, and the price stopped falling and rebounded in the first half of this month. However, due to the weak rise in urea, the favorable support of the cost side has gradually weakened, and the demand side has not improved significantly, and the downstream resistance to high prices, the market peaked again in the middle of the year. Then into the second half of urea prices rose again, the cost side boosted some manufacturers strong willingness to raise prices, some quotations rose again, but due to the weak performance of the downstream market, the price increase is difficult to stimulate downstream procurement enthusiasm, so the market at the end of the month is relatively stable.

2. Market analysis forecast for next month

Figure 2

On the whole, the positive factors of the fundamentals are relatively limited, and the short-term enterprises have no production and sales pressure for the time being, and under the support of costs to a certain extent, the melamine market in the early part of next month may continue to run at a high price, and in the later period, with the weakening of cost support and demand performance in general, the price may be loose, but the expected range is limited.

In addition, for the next three months of forecast, July-August downstream market performance is relatively weak, and September will gradually enter the “golden nine” stage, when downstream demand or will improve, the market support is strengthened, so it is expected that the melamine market in the third quarter as a whole or will show a weak and then strong situation, but because in the later stage, although the demand is expected to increase, there are still new devices put into production in the future, supply and demand are incremental, melamine prices rise and fall space or are relatively limited.

Remark: The analysis is based on transaction in China’s domestic market, it’s only for reference.

Contact information: melamine@easthony.com