1. Market review this month

1.1 Analysis of Domestic Melamine Price Trend

Figure 1
In April, the melamine market in China initially suppressed and then rose. In the first half of this month, the previous decline continued, and the demand side remained sluggish. The willingness to receive goods downstream was not strong, while the operating load level of enterprises remained above 60%. Daily production was relatively stable, and the market and social inventory levels were also relatively high. The imbalance in supply and demand pattern led to manufacturers continuously reducing prices and promoting sales. In the middle of the year, due to the addition of some equipment for shutdown and maintenance, the operating load rate of the enterprise decreased to below 60%, daily production decreased, and local supply pressure decreased; In addition, while urea prices are still relatively high, cost support still exists, and manufacturers are increasingly willing to support prices. Prices have gradually stopped falling and stabilized, and some quotations have begun to rebound tentatively. As the market stabilizes, some downstream companies have entered the market in an appropriate amount to replenish inventory, and the situation of manufacturers receiving orders and shipping has improved. The quotation continues to rise. However, there has been no substantial improvement on the demand side. As prices continue to rise and the May Day holiday approaches, downstream procurement enthusiasm has cooled down, and wait-and-see sentiment has significantly increased, with limited high-end transaction volume.

2. Market analysis and forecast for next month

Figure 2

In the later stage, the downstream market will gradually enter the traditional consumption off-season, so the overall production situation may gradually weaken, which will have a certain negative impact on the market. In addition, there is still room for a downward trend in the urea market, and the production cost line of melamine will also move downwards, gradually weakening the cost boost. Therefore, it is expected that the melamine market as a whole may be in a volatile and weak downward trend in the future.

Remark: The analysis is based on transaction in China’s domestic market, it’s only for reference.

Contact information: melamine@easthony.com